The Soft Underbelly: Why Qom and Mashhad Define the Regime

By Avi Drori, Senior Contributor

March 20, 2026

​For decades, Western strategy toward Iran has focused on Tehran as the ultimate prize. However, Tehran is a sprawling, cosmopolitan paradox—home to both the machinery of state and a massive, tech-savvy population that often stands in direct opposition to it. To understand the regime’s true "center of gravity," one must look to Qom and Mashhad.

​If Tehran is the brain of the Islamic Republic, Qom is its soul and Mashhad is its treasury. Qom serves as the theological engine, housing the seminaries that produce the ruling clerical class. Mashhad, home to the Imam Reza Shrine, is an economic powerhouse managed by the Astan Quds Razavi—a multi-billion dollar bonyad (foundation) that functions as a state-within-a-state, funding the IRGC and regional proxies.

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The Strategy of Total Disruption

​The argument for a fundamental shift in strategy suggests that the regime cannot survive if its ideological foundations are rendered physically untenable. The premise is straightforward: by targeting the civilian and religious infrastructure of these two cities, the regime’s elite would face a localized "dark age" that strips away their ability to govern or provide.

• ​Infrastructure Paralysis: Systematic strikes on power grids, water treatment, sewage, and transportation hubs would render these urban centers uninhabitable.

• ​The Humanitarian Lever: By issuing advance evacuation notices, the intent is to trigger a mass exodus. This forces a "loyalty crisis" for the IRGC and clerical elite: do they stay at their posts in Tehran, or do they abandon the state to rescue their families and assets in the crumbling heartlands?

• ​Ideological Deconstruction: Leveling the physical institutions of the clerical establishment—the seminaries and administrative hubs—serves as a psychological blow, signaling that the "sacred" geography of the revolution is no longer untouchable.

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The Calculated Chaos

​The goal of such a radical doctrine is not mere destruction, but the total displacement of the regime's support base. In this scenario, the "Game Over" moment occurs when the regime’s society—the families of the enforcers and the architects of the ideology—is thrown into the same state of chaos and deprivation they have long visited upon their neighbors.

The Ethical & Geopolitical Precipice

While this “scorched earth” approach targets the regime’s base, it navigates a narrow path of extreme risk. A decade-long displacement of millions would create a humanitarian crisis of unprecedented proportions.

However, proponents of this view argue that the current cycle of “controlled escalation” is failing. They suggest that unless the regime’s own sanctuaries are dismantled, the Islamic Republic will continue to project power externally while remaining insulated internally.