The Great Swap: Will Saudi Arabia Inherit the Mantle of Middle East Instability? February 1, 2026 By Avi Drori

The Middle East is currently witnessing a tectonic shift that few predicted a decade ago. As the Iranian regime—the long-standing vanguard of revolutionary "Jihadism"—faces internal protests and external military pressure, its grip on the region’s ideological export seems to be loosening. Simultaneously, however, a different kind of instability is brewing across the Persian Gulf. The question is no longer just whether Iran’s influence is waning, but whether the vacuum will be filled by a resurgent, vengeful Wahhabi power structure in Saudi Arabia that Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has tried, perhaps unsuccessfully, to dismantle.

​The Mirage of Vision 2030

​Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 was sold to the world as a definitive break from the past. It promised an end to oil dependency, a vibrant entertainment sector, and, most crucially, the "moderation" of Islam. Yet, as we enter 2026, the cracks in the facade are becoming impossible to ignore.

​The ambitious mega-projects like NEOM are facing massive logistical hurdles and fiscal reality checks. Foreign direct investment has not reached the fever pitch required to sustain such radical transformation. For many observers, MBS appears to be losing his grip on the very reforms he pioneered. When a strongman’s economic promises falter, his political enemies—those he sidelined on his way to the top—see their opening.

​The Wahhabi Counter-Strike

​For decades, the Saudi state rested on a "dual-key" system: the House of Saud managed the money and the military, while the Wahhabi clerics managed the soul of the nation. MBS shattered this pact, stripping the religious police of their power and arresting influential clerics.

​But ideologies built over centuries do not disappear in a decade. There are growing signs that the Wahhabi power structure is "moving in for the kill," capitalizing on economic frustrations to reassert its relevance. This is the same clerical establishment that, for years, exported the ultra-conservative brand of Islam that served as the ideological blueprint for extremist groups from the madrasas of Pakistan to the killing fields of Syria.

​If MBS continues to lose ground, the "Post-Wahhabi" era he declared might prove to be nothing more than a temporary ceasefire.

​A New Leadership of Jihad?

​The terrifying prospect for the West and the region is a "Great Swap." If the Iranian leadership of regional militias is dismantled by sanctions or internal collapse, will the vacuum be filled by a Saudi Arabia forced back into the arms of its hardline clerics?

​"The tragedy of the Middle East is often that one form of extremism is only ever replaced by another."

​While Iran’s "Jihadism" is state-sponsored and revolutionary, the Wahhabi brand is often grassroots and expansionist. If Riyadh’s modernizing experiment fails, the clerics may argue that the "Westernization" of the Kingdom was a divine failure, leading to a retrenchment that could see a return to the funding of radical ideologies abroad to secure legitimacy at home.

​The Emerging Power Shift

​We are at a crossroads. The emerging power shift is not necessarily one of "East vs. West" or "Sunni vs. Shia," but a battle between state-led modernization and resilient fundamentalism.

​If Saudi Arabia cannot sustain its reforms, the world may find that the demise of the Iranian threat only leads to the rebirth of a much older, more familiar one. The clerics who helped build the ideological foundations of ISIS have not forgotten their craft; they are simply waiting for the Vision to fail.